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账派看进来,带杠杆的投资收益率分析方法,看看净资产收益率ROE(税前)如何变化

ROE=I+L/E*(I+U/L)

I:年化的资产回报率(房价涨幅年化率)

L:贷款余额

E:(净资产)

U:租金收益

举例:

买入房价:100万,

投入本金(E):20万,

贷款(L): 80万,25年,贷款利率2.15%,

月租2000(第一年租金总计24000),年涨幅2%,

地税4500/年,每4年上涨20%,

房价涨幅年化率(I):5%

 

第一年年末:

总计还款:$41349.6,其中利息:$16884.37,还本金:$24465.23,贷款余额(L): 年初:$800000,年末:$77534.77

净资产(E):年初:$200000,年末:$224465.23

租金收入:$24000,地税:$4500

租金收益U=24000-16884.37-4500=$2615.63

ROE=I+L/E*(I+U/L)=5%+800000/200000*(5%+2615.63/800000)=26.31%

依次此类推至25年末:

period interest principal balance equity rental income property tax rental profit rental profit / liability Annualized ROA liability/equity ratio ROE
Year 0 $0.00  $0.00  $800,000.00  $200,000.00               
Year 1 $16,884.37  $24,465.23  $775,534.77  $224,465.23  $24,000.00  $4,500.00  $2,615.63  0.33% 5% 4.000 26.31%
Year 2 $16,355.55  $24,994.05  $750,540.72  $249,459.28  $24,480.00  $4,500.00  $3,624.45  0.47% 5% 3.455 23.89%
Year 3 $15,815.29  $25,534.31  $725,006.41  $274,993.59  $24,969.60  $4,500.00  $4,654.31  0.62% 5% 3.009 21.91%
Year 4 $15,263.35  $26,086.25  $698,920.16  $301,079.84  $25,468.99  $4,500.00  $5,705.64  0.79% 5% 2.636 20.26%
Year 5 $14,699.48  $26,650.12  $672,270.04  $327,729.96  $25,978.37  $5,400.00  $5,878.89  0.84% 5% 2.321 18.56%
Year 6 $14,123.42  $27,226.18  $645,043.86  $354,956.14  $26,497.94  $5,400.00  $6,974.52  1.04% 5% 2.051 17.38%
Year 7 $13,534.92  $27,814.68  $617,229.18  $382,770.82  $27,027.90  $5,400.00  $8,092.98  1.25% 5% 1.817 16.37%
Year 8 $12,933.70  $28,415.90  $588,813.28  $411,186.72  $27,568.46  $5,400.00  $9,234.76  1.50% 5% 1.613 15.48%
Year 9 $12,319.46  $29,030.14  $559,783.14  $440,216.86  $28,119.83  $6,480.00  $9,320.37  1.58% 5% 1.432 14.43%
Year 10 $11,691.94  $29,657.66  $530,125.48  $469,874.52  $28,682.22  $6,480.00  $10,510.28  1.88% 5% 1.272 13.75%
Year 11 $11,050.89  $30,298.71  $499,826.77  $500,173.23  $29,255.87  $6,480.00  $11,724.98  2.21% 5% 1.128 13.14%
Year 12 $10,395.97  $30,953.63  $468,873.14  $531,126.86  $29,840.98  $6,480.00  $12,965.01  2.59% 5% 0.999 12.59%
Year 13 $9,726.90  $31,622.70  $437,250.44  $562,749.56  $30,437.80  $7,776.00  $12,934.90  2.76% 5% 0.883 11.85%
Year 14 $9,043.35  $32,306.25  $404,944.19  $595,055.81  $31,046.56  $7,776.00  $14,227.21  3.25% 5% 0.777 11.41%
Year 15 $8,345.03  $33,004.57  $371,939.62  $628,060.38  $31,667.49  $7,776.00  $15,546.46  3.84% 5% 0.681 11.02%
Year 16 $7,631.60  $33,718.00  $338,221.62  $661,778.38  $32,300.84  $7,776.00  $16,893.24  4.54% 5% 0.592 10.65%
Year 17 $6,902.77  $34,446.83  $303,774.79  $696,225.21  $32,946.86  $9,331.20  $16,712.89  4.94% 5% 0.511 10.08%
Year 18 $6,158.18  $35,191.42  $268,583.37  $731,416.63  $33,605.79  $9,331.20  $18,116.41  5.96% 5% 0.436 9.78%
Year 19 $5,397.52  $35,952.08  $232,631.29  $767,368.71  $34,277.91  $9,331.20  $19,549.19  7.28% 5% 0.367 9.51%
Year 20 $4,620.39  $36,729.21  $195,902.08  $804,097.92  $34,963.47  $9,331.20  $21,011.88  9.03% 5% 0.303 9.25%
Year 21 $3,826.46  $37,523.14  $158,378.94  $841,621.06  $35,662.74  $11,197.44  $20,638.84  10.54% 5% 0.244 8.78%
Year 22 $3,015.37  $38,334.23  $120,044.71  $879,955.29  $36,375.99  $11,197.44  $22,163.18  13.99% 5% 0.188 8.57%
Year 23 $2,186.75  $39,162.85  $80,881.86  $919,118.14  $37,103.51  $11,197.44  $23,719.32  19.76% 5% 0.136 8.38%
Year 24 $1,340.23  $40,009.37  $40,872.49  $959,127.51  $37,845.58  $11,197.44  $25,307.91  31.29% 5% 0.088 8.19%
Year 25 $475.40  $40,872.49  $0.00  $1,000,000.00  $38,602.49  $13,436.93  $24,690.17  60.41% 5% 0.043 7.79%
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 账派看进来,带杠杆的投资收益率分析方法,看看净资产收益率ROE(税前)如何变化 +1

    ROE=I+L/E*(I+U/L)

    I:年化的资产回报率(房价涨幅年化率)

    L:贷款余额

    E:(净资产)

    U:租金收益

    举例:

    买入房价:100万,

    投入本金(E):20万,

    贷款(L): 80万,25年,贷款利率2.15%,

    月租2000(第一年租金总计24000),年涨幅2%,

    地税4500/年,每4年上涨20%,

    房价涨幅年化率(I):5%

     

    第一年年末:

    总计还款:$41349.6,其中利息:$16884.37,还本金:$24465.23,贷款余额(L): 年初:$800000,年末:$77534.77

    净资产(E):年初:$200000,年末:$224465.23

    租金收入:$24000,地税:$4500

    租金收益U=24000-16884.37-4500=$2615.63

    ROE=I+L/E*(I+U/L)=5%+800000/200000*(5%+2615.63/800000)=26.31%

    依次此类推至25年末:

    period interest principal balance equity rental income property tax rental profit rental profit / liability Annualized ROA liability/equity ratio ROE
    Year 0 $0.00  $0.00  $800,000.00  $200,000.00               
    Year 1 $16,884.37  $24,465.23  $775,534.77  $224,465.23  $24,000.00  $4,500.00  $2,615.63  0.33% 5% 4.000 26.31%
    Year 2 $16,355.55  $24,994.05  $750,540.72  $249,459.28  $24,480.00  $4,500.00  $3,624.45  0.47% 5% 3.455 23.89%
    Year 3 $15,815.29  $25,534.31  $725,006.41  $274,993.59  $24,969.60  $4,500.00  $4,654.31  0.62% 5% 3.009 21.91%
    Year 4 $15,263.35  $26,086.25  $698,920.16  $301,079.84  $25,468.99  $4,500.00  $5,705.64  0.79% 5% 2.636 20.26%
    Year 5 $14,699.48  $26,650.12  $672,270.04  $327,729.96  $25,978.37  $5,400.00  $5,878.89  0.84% 5% 2.321 18.56%
    Year 6 $14,123.42  $27,226.18  $645,043.86  $354,956.14  $26,497.94  $5,400.00  $6,974.52  1.04% 5% 2.051 17.38%
    Year 7 $13,534.92  $27,814.68  $617,229.18  $382,770.82  $27,027.90  $5,400.00  $8,092.98  1.25% 5% 1.817 16.37%
    Year 8 $12,933.70  $28,415.90  $588,813.28  $411,186.72  $27,568.46  $5,400.00  $9,234.76  1.50% 5% 1.613 15.48%
    Year 9 $12,319.46  $29,030.14  $559,783.14  $440,216.86  $28,119.83  $6,480.00  $9,320.37  1.58% 5% 1.432 14.43%
    Year 10 $11,691.94  $29,657.66  $530,125.48  $469,874.52  $28,682.22  $6,480.00  $10,510.28  1.88% 5% 1.272 13.75%
    Year 11 $11,050.89  $30,298.71  $499,826.77  $500,173.23  $29,255.87  $6,480.00  $11,724.98  2.21% 5% 1.128 13.14%
    Year 12 $10,395.97  $30,953.63  $468,873.14  $531,126.86  $29,840.98  $6,480.00  $12,965.01  2.59% 5% 0.999 12.59%
    Year 13 $9,726.90  $31,622.70  $437,250.44  $562,749.56  $30,437.80  $7,776.00  $12,934.90  2.76% 5% 0.883 11.85%
    Year 14 $9,043.35  $32,306.25  $404,944.19  $595,055.81  $31,046.56  $7,776.00  $14,227.21  3.25% 5% 0.777 11.41%
    Year 15 $8,345.03  $33,004.57  $371,939.62  $628,060.38  $31,667.49  $7,776.00  $15,546.46  3.84% 5% 0.681 11.02%
    Year 16 $7,631.60  $33,718.00  $338,221.62  $661,778.38  $32,300.84  $7,776.00  $16,893.24  4.54% 5% 0.592 10.65%
    Year 17 $6,902.77  $34,446.83  $303,774.79  $696,225.21  $32,946.86  $9,331.20  $16,712.89  4.94% 5% 0.511 10.08%
    Year 18 $6,158.18  $35,191.42  $268,583.37  $731,416.63  $33,605.79  $9,331.20  $18,116.41  5.96% 5% 0.436 9.78%
    Year 19 $5,397.52  $35,952.08  $232,631.29  $767,368.71  $34,277.91  $9,331.20  $19,549.19  7.28% 5% 0.367 9.51%
    Year 20 $4,620.39  $36,729.21  $195,902.08  $804,097.92  $34,963.47  $9,331.20  $21,011.88  9.03% 5% 0.303 9.25%
    Year 21 $3,826.46  $37,523.14  $158,378.94  $841,621.06  $35,662.74  $11,197.44  $20,638.84  10.54% 5% 0.244 8.78%
    Year 22 $3,015.37  $38,334.23  $120,044.71  $879,955.29  $36,375.99  $11,197.44  $22,163.18  13.99% 5% 0.188 8.57%
    Year 23 $2,186.75  $39,162.85  $80,881.86  $919,118.14  $37,103.51  $11,197.44  $23,719.32  19.76% 5% 0.136 8.38%
    Year 24 $1,340.23  $40,009.37  $40,872.49  $959,127.51  $37,845.58  $11,197.44  $25,307.91  31.29% 5% 0.088 8.19%
    Year 25 $475.40  $40,872.49  $0.00  $1,000,000.00  $38,602.49  $13,436.93  $24,690.17  60.41% 5% 0.043 7.79%
    • 船头兄弟在俺这里有Credit。作为精算师,他出手的,俺可以不用看了! 俺信得过。 +2
      • 探长过谦,以此证明探长小步快跑的理论和松林等战略涨派投资理论的正确性,净资产收益率随着年份增加逐步减少,对于长期持有的涨派,需要在适当时机refinance不断增持房产,还是在房价涨幅估计很保守,约5%的情况下
        • 与有耻焉! +4
          • 船头!请不要强拉硬塞的!把高买的15万冤大头拉走! +5
        • 最终的胜利必定属于我松林这样的战略涨派!探子这样的悟性和格局,远远不够。
        • 瞧探子这样的,本钱太小,所以要小步快跑,试图低买高卖的,时不时就会捉襟见肘战战兢兢的。
        • 最NO有战略格局的,莫过于:捉襟见肘,顾前不顾腚,东借西挪,东拼西凑,刮肉补疮,Rob Peter to Pay Paul!饮鸩止渴,高利贷!4.50% BLenders 膀胱都快被尿水憋爆了!如履薄冰,战战兢兢。风吹草动,惊弓之鸟! +7
    • 贷款利率在25年中固定在2.15%吗? +6
      • 理想模型。
      • 是的,可以随时替换成需要的年利率,比如3%
        • 应该用25年国债利率 + Mortgage Spread (~1.25%) 约 3.5%fixed rate, 或用 yield curve 更准确
      • 能用30年的为啥不用30年? +1
        • 用30年的收益率更高,对盼跌不啻于另一个噩耗
    • Insurance ? +4
    • 好文,怎么不加精?从另外一个方面想,mortgage 利息被租金抵掉后,你的贷款随着时间推移是贬值的,是free money,穷人为什么穷,是因为没有债务。 +1
      • 为什么盼跌的里头穷人多?
        • 谁愿意自己别人的差距越来越大啊,穷人最喜欢的就是共产和平均分配,穷人喜欢没有压力的生活。
      • 负债越来越少,租金越来越多,房价长期趋势上涨。。跌派若是学会动态的看问题,就不会变成今天的肿脸路舍了
      • 2017年的100万,比2027年的100万,要好用多了!谁要是对这点怀疑,那就会陷入铁杆盼跌的怪圈。
    • lol +4
    • 是学傻了吧?利率一直2.15%?地产每年涨5%?你去看看历史平均水平吧!看看过去100年的平均值。就这样,还做金融? +4
      • 刻舟求剑,人皆有之。探长刚刚在昨天还在奢望他人会有善良本性的回归。 +2
        • +3
      • 美国有人统计了60年,从一个低点统计到一个高点,一看每年4%还不赖么,再一看,房子平均大小大了近三倍。呵呵。 +3
      • 卡总书呆子一个还嘲笑别人,你那些分析也就小学三年级水平,我是不好意思和你们领导说,政府里养了那么多饭桶 +2
    • 这样算肯定第一年ROE是最大的,逐年递减, WHAT IS THE POINT? +4
    • 租金收入只能算11个月。 +2
    • 赞!!能否再算一份,晚1或2年,房价少15/20万,其他条件不变。以利于比较 +2
    • 那20万首付其实也可以贷款的, ROE不是更高吗?! +1
    • 房屋维修养费也不用算进去,出租25年?计算用历史平均值更合理,或者做scenario analysis, 包含optimistic, pessimistic 和其它可能性。当然如果你是为涨派或者跌派找论据那就算了。 +1