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原文“last week we took a big step, we raised our policy interest rate by 100 basis points. That got us into what we call the long run neutral range.We are deliberately front-loading our interest rate response. We want to get ahead of this”

realworld(GTA)

”You asked where do interest rates have to go? Look, last week we took a big step, we raised our policy interest rate by 100 basis points. That got us into what we call the long run neutral range... We are deliberately front-loading our interest rate response. We want to get ahead of this. The best chance of getting that soft recovery is to front-load the policy response.

That does argue for increasing the policy rate again, probably something around the top of that 2 to 3 per cent range, or a little bit over and doing that pretty quickly. ”

(#14697392@0)
Last Updated: 2022-7-22
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枫下家园 / 枫下觅巢 /
tor
Toronto Area

加拿大央行认了：预判失误下半年通胀维持痛苦高位 -jtax(吾土吾民); 2022-7-21 {478} (#14696716@0)

越来越多的加拿大人感受到生活成本增加带来的压力，加拿大银行行长Tiff Macklem说，加拿大的通货膨胀率在今年下半年将继续保持在"痛苦的高位"。

Full Story:
https://info.51.ca/articles/1128380?wyacs=info-article-list

8月真有可能加一次利率。他说 “ 上周我们迈出了一大步，我们把我们的政策利率提高了100个基点。这使我们进入了我们所说的长期中性范围······我们将我们的利率反应提前，我们想走在这之前。” -realworld(GTA); 2022-7-22 {203} (#14697376@0)
他还说现在的利率是“长期”及“中性”，意味着以后降息，不会是低于目前，而且要维持在目前在这个利率上。再看目前各个银行五年GIC rate，也是很高的，网上搜到CIBC5%，RBC4.5%。说明银行觉得利率五年内不会比现在低。

他的意思是提高100点是走在通货之前。 -thegirlbefore(Normal is remote); 2022-7-22 (#14697382@0)

原文“last week we took a big step, we raised our policy interest rate by 100 basis points. That got us into what we call the long run neutral range.We are deliberately front-loading our interest rate response. We want to get ahead of this” -realworld(GTA); 2022-7-22 {562} (#14697392@0)
”You asked where do interest rates have to go? Look, last week we took a big step, we raised our policy interest rate by 100 basis points. That got us into what we call the long run neutral range... We are deliberately front-loading our interest rate response. We want to get ahead of this. The best chance of getting that soft recovery is to front-load the policy response.
That does argue for increasing the policy rate again, probably something around the top of that 2 to 3 per cent range, or a little bit over and doing that pretty quickly. ”

注意，是want to, 不是wanted to。他还说了要快速加息。 -realworld(GTA); 2022-7-22 (#14697395@0) +1

也不是提前加息的意思，也可以每次多加点。又不是预料之外，上一次加息之后我就说过到年底还要加3%。这个3%是业内人士分析的。 -thegirlbefore(Normal is remote); 2022-7-22 (#14697405@0)

如果还要加3%，意味着每次加1%？那哭死的人可不少。 -realworld(GTA); 2022-7-22 (#14697408@0) +1

已经加了1%，还要加2%。 -thegirlbefore(Normal is remote); 2022-7-22 (#14697415@0)
下个月的通胀如果还是8%以上，九月加息1%的可能性很大。如果低于8% （央行预测低于8%），九月加息0.75%。 -flyingstraw(稻草人@多转少评); 2022-7-22 (#14697418@0)

别扯淡了，汽油天天在下跌，说明库存供大于求。国际原油期货都是炒家炒起来的。能源股最近都跌惨了。 -idontknowa(idontknow); 2022-7-22 (#14697423@0) +2

我也不希望涨利率呐，别激动。 -thegirlbefore(Normal is remote); 2022-7-22 (#14697457@0) +1
房价也是炒起来的。 -flyingstraw(稻草人@多转少评); 2022-7-22 (#14697506@0) +5

那你得有信服的证据房子也供大于求。可惜房价不涨房租涨，结论正好相反 -idontknowa(idontknow); 2022-7-22 (#14697659@0) +2

汽油明天降到1.6 。 -idontknowa(idontknow); 2022-7-22 (#14697434@0)
Good point. 不过Top of that 2-3% range,也就那样了。 -englearner(majia); 2022-7-22 (#14697535@0)
也就是说，宁可矫枉过正 -jtax(吾土吾民); 2022-7-22 (#14697571@0)

央行的P话你也信？21年初被疫情怵的时候还信誓旦旦地说到23年都不会加息。 -hhww(威震天); 2022-7-22 (#14697514@0) +2
你要先搞明白中性利率是啥意思。 -czczcz(看得清); 2022-7-22 (#14697694@0)

过几个月经济衰退，他再承认“判断失误”，把利率降下来 😂 -rockall(we will, we will); 2022-7-22 (#14697543@0) +1

通过衰退打压通胀到2%，然后减息很正常 -jtax(吾土吾民); 2022-7-22 (#14697558@0) +1
看cpi走势图，80年代哪次打压第一波下来很快，松绑很快，立刻陡坡反弹比上一峰值还高。能说的只能是见风使舵，变量太多 -**🍌; 2022-7-22 (#14697563@0)

然后立刻80年代第二次打压，才真狠 -jtax(吾土吾民); 2022-7-22 (#14697567@0)

第二次打压就是不管衰退，打死cpi。这次变量多，谁预测也没准 -**🍌; 2022-7-22 (#14697577@0) +1

房价不计算在CPI 里的吧？ -**🍐; 2022-7-22 (#14697583@0)

房价及房价相关很多都不在cpi里 -**🍌; 2022-7-22 (#14697589@0)
房价不算但房租算 -**🌟; 2022-7-22 (#14697591@0) +4

最近房租涨的比较疯。下月通胀9%。九月加息1%。好。同意。 -flyingstraw(稻草人@多转少评); 2022-7-22 (#14697648@0)

到时你买房的首付都拿去交租了，好 😉 -czczcz(看得清); 2022-7-22 (#14697705@0)

加拿大有啥判断，无非是跟着美国走，将美加两国利差维持在一定范围。 -haploidus(今剩叹); 2022-7-22 (#14697630@0)

就是没有纠正美国的判断 -**🍌; 2022-7-22 (#14697677@0)

@Atlanta

原文“last week we took a big step, we raised our policy interest rate by 100 basis points. That got us into what we call the long run neutral range.We are deliberately front-loading our interest rate response. We want to get ahead of this”

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