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现在最大的问题是cash也不一定可靠了!!

股票市场面临由战争的不确定性引发的向下压力。经济本身又在需求停滞和供给中断之间走钢丝。昨天的发表的PPI指数上涨远远超过预计,显示通货膨胀的压力存在。虽然今天CPI指数在预期范围内,但这只是最后一道防线。PPI和CPI之间的巨大反差说明目前在supply chain只有象walmart这样的零售商还硬挺着不涨价,但是他们的选择也不多了,要末加入涨价的行列,要末把哪些产品从货架上赶下去,因为供货商们已经没有选择余地了,在降低成本方面现在早已过了割肉的阶段,正在伤筋动骨阶段挣扎,再不涨价只有死路一条。预计近期内是消费者和商家们最后决斗的阶段了,如果消费不复苏,供给中断只是时间的问题,到时就等着物价飞涨吧。
在这种情况下,投资应该是分散在能够保值的方面。
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 枫下家园 / 理财投资税务 / 一个朋友给我的E-mail,大家看一下,有道理吗?
    本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛World Technical Strategy: "Which Way to Go?"

    - "War does not decide who is right, it decides who is left". Old
    Chinese
    proverb. A turning point is close at hand.

    - If the low, which formed in October, is broken, then all western
    markets
    will be in both cyclical and secular downtrend.

    - A quick resolution of uncertainty could signal a cyclical upturn, but
    with out that the bear market will continue.

    Markets always react badly to uncertainty. If the situation in Iraq is
    not
    resolved within a few weeks either by having a war, or it being made
    abundantly clear that one is not needed, then stock markets indices
    will
    break their key support levels. Bear trends will continue and deepen.

    The most vital level for any index is always a half of the all time
    high.
    This is where the S&P index made its low in October, and is the level
    that
    the FTSE index has just recently tested. This is the watershed level. A
    break below it signals a secular downtrend for at least one four year
    cycle. When the US indices last had a secular downtrend it lasted 16
    years.
    All European indices are already well below the vital level, as of
    course
    is Japan. Secular uptrends seem to be in place in the Pacific Region ex
    Japan, and in Commodity driven markets. The potential for them to exist
    is
    also present in Latin America.

    If uncertainty continues, then all markets will probably break down in
    a
    worst case scenario. Cash will be king. At present, however, the chart
    shapes lead us to expect a short war, or a negotiated victory for the
    USA.
    This would be followed by a modest economic recovery. This could lead
    to
    rally phases in western markets. We believe that the low to start this
    process is now in place.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
    • 现在最大的问题是cash也不一定可靠了!!
      股票市场面临由战争的不确定性引发的向下压力。经济本身又在需求停滞和供给中断之间走钢丝。昨天的发表的PPI指数上涨远远超过预计,显示通货膨胀的压力存在。虽然今天CPI指数在预期范围内,但这只是最后一道防线。PPI和CPI之间的巨大反差说明目前在supply chain只有象walmart这样的零售商还硬挺着不涨价,但是他们的选择也不多了,要末加入涨价的行列,要末把哪些产品从货架上赶下去,因为供货商们已经没有选择余地了,在降低成本方面现在早已过了割肉的阶段,正在伤筋动骨阶段挣扎,再不涨价只有死路一条。预计近期内是消费者和商家们最后决斗的阶段了,如果消费不复苏,供给中断只是时间的问题,到时就等着物价飞涨吧。
      在这种情况下,投资应该是分散在能够保值的方面。
    • <ZT> 有多少money可以重来; 有多少stock愿意等待; 当确认up以后回来; 却不知那支股,会不会还cheap?
      • <ZT> 有多少chance可以重来; 有多少stock值得等待; 当market已经桑田沧海,是否还有勇气去buy?
        • Good Rap. Yo!
    • 好!谢谢以上各位!我会不断地向各位讨教的。